Lebanon clears first hurdle in weapons plan—what’s next north of the Litani River?

Report by Edmond Sassine, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Lebanon’s army and government have completed the first phase of a plan to confine weapons south of the Litani River, seeking to balance the country’s international commitments with its paramount national interests.

A statement by the Lebanese army, endorsed by the country’s three top leaders, said the objectives of the first phase were achieved effectively and in a tangible manner, while pledging to continue efforts to consolidate control and prevent armed groups from rebuilding their capabilities.

The cabinet praised the army’s work, while stressing that the only remaining obstacle south of the Litani is the occupation of the five hills, the buffer zones, ongoing daily violations, and delays in the delivery of promised aid to the army.

However, questions have arisen about the second phase.

Navigating this complex landscape depended on completing the first phase, but the challenge remains the lack of a defined timeline for launching and completing the second phase north of the Litani.

Lebanon has effectively gained a month for the army to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the first phase, after which it will outline a vision for the next stage based on needs and requirements.

Until that assessment is completed and the cabinet takes a decision, the Lebanese army will continue implementing its plan to contain weapons north of the Litani — a plan it had already begun in parallel with the first phase — aimed at preventing the transfer of weapons north of the river and halting any military activity there.

This calibration of positions and decisions, along with efforts to secure a one-month window while awaiting suitable conditions to build on, comes as Lebanon keeps an eye on the upcoming ceasefire monitoring mechanism meeting.

The recommendation conveyed by Lebanese representatives on the committee, at the official political level, will stress the need to halt Israeli violations, including bombings, airstrikes, and assassinations.

During this month, Lebanon will also be watching Israel’s actions on the ground, and whether the guarantors of the ceasefire agreement can secure any step toward beginning a withdrawal from the five occupied points, halting the attacks, or activating the detainees' file. 

Any Israeli move of this kind, in return for Lebanon’s commitment to completing the first phase, could help domestically in setting the direction of subsequent stages.

On a third level, Lebanon is closely monitoring rapid developments in Iran, as Iran’s internal trajectory is expected to influence decisions related to confining weapons in Lebanon.