Lebanon's election battle deepens: Expat district or 128 seats?

Report by Bassam Abou Zeid, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

Lebanon's political and constitutional tensions over parliamentary elections are escalating, as officials remain divided over how to apply the country's election law and whether overseas Lebanese should vote for all 128 lawmakers or for a separate expatriate district.

At the presidential palace in Baabda and at the government headquarters, there has been no objection to an advisory opinion issued by the Justice Ministry's Legislation and Consultations Commission, which allows Lebanese voters registered abroad to cast ballots from their countries of residence for all 128 seats.

However, a clear objection has emerged from Ain el-Tineh, where Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri is opposing the approach, heightening political tension around the election file.

According to sources, the fate of holding elections, or failing to hold them, has become tied to one of two steps.

The first is for parliament to convene and amend the current election law. The second is for the government to issue the implementing decrees needed for the so-called 16th electoral district, which allocates six seats specifically for Lebanese living abroad.

If parliament does not convene to approve any amendment to the law, the election process would remain effectively stalled, putting the scheduled vote in doubt.

At the same time, if the government does not issue the implementing decrees for the expatriate district, elections cannot be organized under the existing law, which would also disrupt the electoral deadline.

The situation has created a growing political and legal deadlock. Keeping the law unchanged while also failing to issue the necessary decrees would leave the electoral process trapped in a procedural impasse.

If the government decides to follow the advisory opinion and organize elections as it did in 2022—allowing expatriates to vote for all 128 MPs—it could trigger a political confrontation with parties that oppose this interpretation, including Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), increasing the risk of disruption.

On the other hand, issuing the implementing decrees for the 16th district could spark a different confrontation with parties that insist expatriates should vote for all 128 seats, including the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb Party, and the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP).

The dispute leaves the government facing delicate political calculations over which side it is prepared to confront.

Therefore, any delay in parliament convening or in issuing the implementing decrees will not bring Lebanon closer to a solution. Instead, it is likely to deepen the political and legal complexity and further cast doubt on the holding of parliamentary elections.

The possibility of extending parliament's term remains on the table, though such a move would also require a legislative session, one that could quickly become a new arena for political confrontation among rival blocs.