Between escalation and negotiation: Lebanon’s fragile moment

Report by Nada Andraos, English adaptation by Mariella Succar

Amid escalating Israeli threats to expand strikes to Beirut’s southern suburbs and the capital, sources familiar with the situation said no new guarantees have been received so far regarding the earlier understanding that excluded the Lebanese capital and its suburbs from direct targeting.

As strikes continued in southern Lebanon, footage circulated showing destruction in the south, the southern suburbs of Beirut, and parts of the capital on what was described as “Black Wednesday.”

In parallel, attention is turning to Washington, where a military delegation is expected to travel carrying the same presidential instructions previously given to a negotiating team led by Ambassador Simon Karam.

According to informed sources, the delegation is operating under limited authority and is tasked with two main objectives: securing a ceasefire and halting what has been described as the bulldozing of villages and towns in southern Lebanon.

The delegation is expected to present Lebanon’s position, centered on a ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal, the release of detainees, and stabilization of the border, alongside the principle of exclusive state authority over all Lebanese territory.

The delegation will hear the Israeli response and relay it to the Lebanese Army commander, who will then pass it to the president. The president is expected to provide guidance to the negotiating team ahead of a second round of talks scheduled for June 2–3.

Despite Israel’s insistence on what it calls operational freedom of action against Hezbollah, the Lebanese Army maintains that any security arrangement remains impossible without a verified ceasefire. Only then, officials say, could discussions proceed on redeploying the army northward from what is referred to as the Yellow Line, and working toward a weapons-free zone under state authority.

Officials say that, if progress is achieved, a second phase of a broader disarmament plan could be discussed, extending from north of the Litani River to the Awali River. However, implementation remains conditional on a halt to Israeli strikes and the beginning of a withdrawal from southern areas.

The main obstacle, according to the sources, remains Israel’s refusal to withdraw from what is described as the occupied Yellow Zone.

Lebanon is now awaiting the outcome of the Washington meeting to determine the next phase, amid uncertainty over whether negotiations will lead to de-escalation or further escalation that could derail the diplomatic track entirely.