Salam’s Turkey visit: Where does Lebanon stand amid shifting regional alliances?

Report by Toni Mrad, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

“Which team are you supporting in the World Cup?” is a question heard frequently these days. In politics and at the level of states, a similar question is emerging: Which axis will countries align with? The American-Israeli axis? The Iranian axis? Or the Turkish-Arab axis, with an extension toward Pakistan?

As regional alliances remain in the process of being shaped amid the realities of wars that have continued for three years, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the war is not over yet and that some axes are declining while others are rising. So where does Lebanon stand amid all these changes? Is it seeking to join a specific axis, or is it aiming to build balanced relations with all sides?

In this context, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s visit to Turkey comes at a highly significant time.

Although relations between Beirut and Ankara have not been at their strongest in recent years, particularly after the maritime border demarcation agreement between Lebanon and Cyprus, which drew objections from Turkey, Salam arrived in Istanbul, where he met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a dinner.

According to Mahmoud Allouch, a writer and political researcher specializing in Turkish and regional affairs, Salam’s visit to Turkey is highly significant at this stage, especially amid Turkey’s growing role in the region and following the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. 

The Hezbollah issue was among the topics discussed between them. Lebanon’s engagement with Turkey has become increasingly important, particularly because Ankara has tools it wants to use in the region and in its relations with Washington.

This includes its influence in Syria and its strong relationship with the Trump administration, which could help Lebanon emerge from this crisis. Turkey is interested in assisting Lebanon, and any escalation in Lebanon could have regional repercussions.

Ankara also wants to use its diplomacy to prevent Israel from achieving its objectives and to help create conditions that would support Lebanon in reaching a solution to the issue of limiting weapons to the state.

Salam’s visit to Turkey will not be the last. A similar visit by President Joseph Aoun to Turkey is expected later this month.

Between Salam’s and Aoun’s visits, it appears that Lebanon is seeking to expand its network of relations in a region where alliances are shifting. In a country surrounded by rivals and adversaries, positioning itself or aligning with one axis over another could prove to be a costly misstep.