Lebanon records 35% drop in marriages as young people postpone starting families

Report by Cherly Abou Chabke, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

For some Lebanese, marriage is being delayed by the rising cost of setting up a home, the disruption caused by war, or the need to focus on education and work, while others are simply choosing to wait. Different circumstances, but they are all contributing to the same outcome: fewer people getting married.

According to figures from Lebanon’s Ministry of Interior and Municipalities, 15,018 marriages were registered between Jan. 1 and June 30, 2025. During the same period in 2026, that number fell to 9,785.

That means 5,233 fewer marriages, a decline of around 35%.

From a demographic perspective, what does the decline in marriage mean, and what could its long-term impact be?

It is important to note that the relationship between marriage and childbirth varies from one society to another. In OECD countries, for example, more than 40% of births take place outside marriage. So, a decline in marriage does not necessarily mean a decline in births.

But in Japan and South Korea, the picture is almost the opposite: Around 97% or more of births take place within marriage. As marriage was increasingly delayed and became less common, it became one of the factors contributing to the decline in birth rates.

Lebanon is neither Japan nor South Korea, but starting a family here remains closely linked to marriage. This raises the question: If Lebanese people are marrying less or at an older age, will they also delay having children?

Looking at Lebanon’s figures, the picture had already begun to change before this latest decline. According to the World Bank, Lebanon’s fertility rate stood at more than five children per woman in the 1960s, before falling to around 2.2 children per woman in 2024.

In other words, over roughly six decades, Lebanese families have become noticeably smaller.

The United Nations Population Fund says this decline is not always because people no longer want to marry or have children. In its 2025 report, it points to factors such as high housing costs, limited employment opportunities, instability and pessimism about the future as barriers that lead people to postpone starting a family.

In Lebanon today, these same factors are intersecting with war and emigration. If young people are postponing marriage, they will likely delay having children as well.

If this trend continues, it could mean families forming later and having fewer children. Combined with the emigration of young people, Lebanon could eventually have a smaller young population, a smaller workforce, and a larger share of older people.