Who will fill the gap after UNIFIL? Lebanon and Israel remain divided

Report by Nada Andraos, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

The uncertainty over the nature of the European mission is not the only reason its discussion in Cabinet was delayed. The political deadlock over the future of the international presence in southern Lebanon is also a factor, as efforts to find an alternative to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) remain stalled.

According to informed sources who spoke to LBCI, Israel opposes the presence of any new U.N. or European force and is seeking to establish a direct field-level relationship between itself and the Lebanese army after UNIFIL’s mission ends.

Lebanon rejects this option, fearing that the south could become a direct confrontation zone without an international umbrella or a mechanism to guarantee stability.

Against this backdrop, President Joseph Aoun has maintained ongoing contacts with U.S. officials in an effort to prevent an international vacuum in the south.

According to the information, Lebanon is not vetoing any country or entity that could head or participate in a committee tasked with verifying the implementation of the pilot zones. However, it insists that the United States continue to oversee any future mechanism.

Amid this complexity, controversy emerged over the European Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy mission after it was understood to potentially be an alternative to UNIFIL.

Government sources told LBCI that comments by Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji as he entered the Cabinet session on the matter were understood differently from what he intended, linking two separate tracks.

The proposed European mission is not a military force and will not deploy troops in southern Lebanon. It also does not replace UNIFIL or the envisaged international force. 

Its role is advisory and training-focused, aimed at providing logistical and technical support to the Lebanese army and Internal Security Forces to strengthen their ability to extend state authority.

According to LBCI information, a European delegation visited Lebanon this week as part of preparations for the mission, while another delegation is expected to arrive in mid-October. Details of the mission and its operating mechanisms remain under discussion with Lebanon.

As for the fifth item on the Cabinet agenda concerning the mission, government sources told LBCI that it was not withdrawn but postponed for two weeks because of the issue that arose over it.

During this period, the Defense and Interior ministries will prepare a list of the needs of the army and security forces, along with the required training programs.

In other words, Europe is considering a mission to support Lebanon’s state institutions, not to fill the potential vacuum left by UNIFIL. As for an international alternative in the south, it remains caught between Israel’s opposition to any new force and Lebanon’s refusal to face Israel alone on the ground.