Israel’s elections: Who’s competing for power, and why the Arab vote matters

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Thirty-eight party lists are competing in Israel’s elections on Oct. 27.

The race features right-wing, left-wing and centrist parties, as well as Arab and religious parties.

The right-wing parties include two lists: Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, who has governed Israel since 2009, and Yisrael Beiteinu, led by right-wing politician Avigdor Lieberman.

Moving from the right to the center, there is Yashar, meaning “straight” in Arabic, led by former Israeli army chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, one of Netanyahu’s main challengers.

Another is Beyachad, meaning “together,” which brings together right-wing politician Naftali Bennett and centrist opposition leader Yair Lapid.

Moving from the center to the left, there is the Democrats party, led by Yair Golan. The party supports a two-state solution, and Golan has previously criticized the Israeli military’s operations in Gaza.

Amid these parties, the Arab parties stand out. Their role in the elections could prove decisive. They include:

1. The Joint List

The Joint List is led by Yousef Jabareen of the Democratic Front. It comprises three parties: the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality, whose main component is the Communist Party; the Arab Movement for Renewal, led by Ahmad Tibi; and the National Democratic Assembly, led by Azmi Bishara from abroad.

2. The United Arab List

Led by Mansour Abbas, the United Arab List is an Islamist movement with close ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. In an unprecedented move, it has included former Israeli army and police officer Yoav Segalovitz on its list.

Differences between the Arab parties remain significant, particularly over the United Arab List. However, the gravity of the current situation has pushed them to seek common ground, with their main objective being to increase Arab voter turnout, which opinion polls project could reach 70%.

If turnout reaches that level on election day, the Arab parties could prevent smaller Zionist parties from winning seats, thereby increasing their overall strength in the Knesset.

This, however, is where the problem lies.

The Joint List maintains its longstanding position of refusing to participate in any Israeli government.

Mansour Abbas’ United Arab List, by contrast, is open to joining such a government. Despite this position, its participation faces firm opposition not only from Netanyahu and his allies, but also from opposition parties.

As things stand, the likely scenario appears to be the formation of a national unity government that excludes the Arab parties, following an agreement between Netanyahu and Eisenkot to each serve as prime minister for two years.

This scenario is rejected by the Israeli left.

Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s endorsement, Netanyahu will attempt to persuade smaller right-wing parties to withdraw from the race to strengthen the right-wing bloc.

Meanwhile, the withdrawal of Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party has created an opportunity for Eisenkot’s party or other parties within the change bloc to gain seats, increasing their chances of forming a government.