Netanyahu or Eisenkot? Israel faces a political crossroads as five scenarios emerge

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian
 
By Friday morning, the counting of ballots in Israel's elections is expected to be complete, and the official results will be announced.

Until then, current figures suggest that neither of the two main political camps, led by Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, will secure the 61 seats needed for a majority in the Knesset and the ability to form a government, even after all votes are counted.

Eisenkot, who was quick to declare victory, has found himself in a difficult position as the vote count progresses, forcing him to reconsider his remarks about forming a national unity government representing the various segments of Israeli society, including the religious right, the left and secular groups. 

His speech, however, made no mention of Arab citizens.

Will he actually be able to form a government without Arab political support, as his allies are pressuring him to do, or without joining forces with Netanyahu, who rejects any partnership with Arab parties?

Meanwhile, the United Arab List, led by Mansour Abbas, has kept open the possibility of joining a government headed by Eisenkot.

The Joint List, however, has ruled out participating in any Israeli government while stressing that it would not hesitate to provide outside support to Eisenkot to secure the 61-seat majority he needs.

Against this backdrop, Israel faces at least five possible scenarios.

Eisenkot could form a government with the ultra-Orthodox parties. To bring them into his coalition, he would have to abandon plans to pass legislation requiring ultra-Orthodox men to serve in the military.

Alternatively, Eisenkot could form a minority government backed by Arab parties without their joining the coalition. To make this possible, he would need to persuade Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman to abandon their pledges not to participate in a minority government.

Netanyahu could form a minority government. He is seeking a mandate from President Isaac Herzog, arguing that Likud has established itself as the largest party.

Another possibility is that Netanyahu forms a government by attracting defectors from the opposition. He would need to persuade members of the “change bloc” to leave their camp and join him. This scenario appears unlikely, as he would need more than one or two lawmakers to secure a majority.

Netanyahu's preferred scenario is for U.S. President Donald Trump to intervene and push for a national unity government. Such pressure could force Eisenkot to abandon his pledge not to join a government that includes Netanyahu.

The final scenario, and the worst outcome for all sides, would be another election early next year. This would give Netanyahu an opportunity to exploit the intervening period and act as a caretaker prime minister with few parliamentary constraints.