Saudi Arabia drives efforts to align Lebanon’s leadership amid regional negotiations — is a breakthrough possible?

Report by Lara El Hachem, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Despite its small size and complex political system, Lebanon has become a focal point of Western, Arab, U.S., and Israeli attention, with each party pursuing its own interests.

On the U.S. side, President Donald Trump personally chaired the talks between Lebanon and Israel. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron announced from Nicosia his country’s readiness to organize a conference to support the Lebanese army.

At the Arab level, Saudi Arabia has led a broad diplomatic effort since Thursday. The key question is: What does the kingdom want?

Saudi Arabia’s primary objective is to arrange a trilateral meeting bringing together President Joseph Aoun, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, in an effort to break the deadlock caused by differences over direct negotiations, and earlier between Berri and Salam over options primarily related to the issue of weapons.

Saudi Arabia supports the president’s negotiation initiative, provided Lebanon remains within the framework of the Arab Peace Initiative. It also maintains its support for Salam’s government and recognizes that any consolidation of the Lebanese position requires Shiite political backing. Such alignment could form the basis for a broader national dialogue, should one be convened later.

However, sources indicated that any trilateral meeting would be fundamentally based on the Taif Agreement, particularly its key provision calling for the handover of illegal weapons to the state. 

This clause is considered as important as the recovery of occupied land, although its resolution is viewed as a domestic matter, a position Saudi Arabia is increasingly adopting.

Weapons are not the only issue. Riyadh is pushing for the full implementation of the Taif Agreement, including all stipulated reforms, warning that any deviation could threaten Lebanon’s stability. Stability and civil peace are considered red lines, a message conveyed by the country's envoy during his meetings.

It has also become clear to Saudi Arabia that the United States is expanding Israeli influence in the region. Recent developments in the war have also shown that tensions involving Iran can affect the entire region. 

From this perspective, Riyadh is reasserting its influence while sending positive signals to Iran by engaging with the Shiite political component, whether through Prince Yazid bin Farhan’s meeting with Berri, the invitation extended to lawmaker Ali Hassan Khalil to visit Saudi Arabia, or Saudi Arabia’s quiet welcome of the joint statement by the Amal Movement and Hezbollah, which called for refraining from protests and included calls to bring down the government.