Tense calm in Lebanon raises fears ceasefire may collapse as regional escalation looms

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian 

A tense calm prevails regarding Lebanon, raising concerns that the three-week ceasefire extension could collapse. Assessments also suggest a growing possibility of a new war with Iran. This was the conclusion of a meeting of the Israeli security cabinet held late Thursday.

The tense calm is accompanied by reports from a security official that the army has received instructions to prepare for a potential larger-scale military operation in Lebanon.

Hours after U.S. President Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire with Lebanon, a move that sparked significant domestic criticism, developments on the ground accelerated.

Hezbollah shot down a drone over Tyre using a surface-to-air missile and launched rockets toward the settlement of Shtula in the Western Galilee. In response, the Northern Command announced new measures aimed at countering Hezbollah’s activity without escalating into open conflict.

The measures include the transfer of defensive vehicles and military equipment through logistical routes deep into Lebanese territory, from Ras al-Bayada in the western sector to the eastern sector in southern Lebanon, including the maritime zone opposite several of these areas. The operations are intended to carry out extensive sweep missions in villages.

While the prospects for continued war in Lebanon remain unclear, the situation regarding Iran appears more defined. On that front, the air force has begun a countdown toward a possible strike, as officials escalate their threats.

A fragile ceasefire in Lebanon and preparations for a potential new war with Iran underscore two separate fronts and tracks that the United States and Israel are seeking to keep distinct.