$435 million a day: The rising cost of Iran’s economic squeeze

Report by Lea Fayad, English adaptation by Mariella Succar

Iran faces mounting pressure under U.S. sanctions, with limited export options and rising economic losses, according to a report.

About 90% of Iran’s maritime trade passes through the Gulf, leaving the country with few viable alternatives. Each day under restrictions linked to the Strait of Hormuz is increasing costs and economic strain.

Estimates suggest Iran is losing approximately $435 million per day, including around $159 million in import-related losses and $276 million in exports, particularly due to disruptions in oil shipments. 

Roughly half of Iran’s export revenues are believed to be a key source of funding for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

However, analysts say the greater risk is structural rather than immediate financial losses. Oil that cannot be exported and absorbed domestically becomes a storage burden, as Iran’s storage capacity is limited to roughly two weeks to two months. 

Beyond that threshold, Iran could be forced to implement production shut-ins and close oil wells, a move that could result in billions of dollars in losses and require months to restart operations.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury has intensified pressure through new sanctions targeting individuals, companies, and oil tankers. Washington is also moving toward not renewing a temporary waiver that previously allowed limited Iranian oil flows without sanctions, which is set to expire on Sunday.

Despite the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps downplaying the risks and reiterating its control over the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, warning it could restrict passage through these waterways, the implications extend beyond Iran.

China, the world’s largest energy importer and a major buyer of Iranian oil, has described the situation as dangerous and is seeking alternative sources of supply.

In contrast, the United States is nearing a position where it could become a net energy exporter for the first time since World War II.